CLECAT, which represents freight forwarders at an EU level, has provided the following information based on a webinar it hosted with Drewry.
The discussion highlighted that, in the absence of a diplomatic breakthrough, continued disruption in the Strait could have significant consequences for maritime trade. Drewry outlined two main scenarios:
- a short disruption leading to temporary rate spikes and reduced volumes, and a
- more prolonged disruption, potentially resulting in higher fuel costs, inflationary pressures, and a contraction in global trade.
Beyond the immediate impacts, the webinar also pointed to possible medium- and long-term adjustments, including shifts in trade routes, near-shoring trends, and a gradual reconfiguration of supply chains away from vulnerable choke points. Increased congestion, longer lead times, and elevated spot freight rates were identified as key concerns for freight forwarders and shippers.
To give some context to the geography, the Straits of Hormuz are 22 miles wide at their narrowest point- precisely the distance between Dover and Calais.
The summary can be located at https://www.clecat.org/media/drewry-webinar-april-2026.pdf
BIFA thanks CLECAT for sharing this information and allowing its circulation to the wider membership. Important note: the information contained is correct as of the date of issue, but the volatile situation can change very rapidly
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